Forecasting and Development Scenarios

Part 12, Chapter 12: Running a Simulation, History Matching, and Forecasting

Running the Future

Once matched, the model is run forward under competing development scenarios: do nothing, waterflood, infill drilling, or combinations. Each produces a cumulative-recovery curve.

Forecasting and development scenariosintervenedo nothingwaterfloodinfill drillingtime (years) ->cumulative oilAll three scenarios share the history and split at the intervention; the gap to do-nothing is the incremental recovery, and acting earlier captures more.

Incremental Recovery

The scenarios share the same past and diverge only after the intervention, so the gap between a plan and the do-nothing case is the incremental recovery it buys, the number that justifies the spend.

Timing Matters

Intervening earlier captures more, because the natural decline has eaten less of the recoverable oil. The matched model is what turns the geology and physics of the earlier chapters into the decision of what to do and when.

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