Flow-Based Upscaling
No Simple Average Fits
Real rock is not neatly layered, so neither the arithmetic nor the harmonic mean is exactly right. Flow-based upscaling sidesteps the question: it solves single-phase flow across the fine block, with a pressure drop end to end, and reports the single permeability that reproduces the same total flux. That is the effective permeability by definition.
Inside the Bounds
The flow-based value always lies between the harmonic (the lower bound) and the arithmetic (the upper bound), and for a randomly heterogeneous field it sits near the geometric mean. At low heterogeneity all the estimates agree, so a quick average is fine; as the permeability contrast grows they spread apart and only the flow solve stays trustworthy.
The Price
Flow-based upscaling is more accurate but more expensive: it solves a flow problem for every coarse cell, and the result is directional, a different value along each axis, a permeability tensor. The practical choice is to average where the rock is mild and solve where it is not, spending the compute where heterogeneity actually controls the flow.